je.st
news
Tag: enrique
Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-26 17:24:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261523 CCA TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank. Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite structure since 1200 UTC. Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right, especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt. Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling. Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-26 17:01:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 15:01:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 15:22:37 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
enrique
hurricane graphics
Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-26 17:00:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 the center of Enrique was located near 17.1, -105.3 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
enrique
Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 6
2021-06-26 17:00:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 579 WTPZ35 KNHC 261500 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest with a gradual slowdown in forward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected today, and Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-26 16:55:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261455 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 1(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 1(16) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 28(33) 23(56) 7(63) 1(64) X(64) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 25(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 34(40) 12(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 27 31(58) 7(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) MANZANILLO 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 11(24) 1(25) 1(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] next »