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Hurricane Enrique Graphics

2021-06-26 22:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 20:58:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 20:58:53 GMT

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-06-26 22:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262058 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity of 75 kt for this advisory. Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or tomorrow. Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-26 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 the center of Enrique was located near 17.3, -105.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 7

2021-06-26 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262053 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible in the short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early next week as it begins moving over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2021-06-26 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 262053 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 1(19) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 1(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 9(10) 34(44) 12(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 1 9(10) 16(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 13 25(38) 2(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 34 33 15(48) 2(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 7(18) 1(19) 1(20) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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