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Tropical Depression SEVEN Graphics
2016-08-22 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 20:38:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 20:35:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-08-22 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222037 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 A new burst of convection has developed near the center of Fiona during the past several hours. However, this increase was not significant enough to affect the subjective satellite intensity estimates, which remain at 30 kt. This is also in good agreement with earlier ASCAT data. The dynamical models forecast that the current westerly vertical shear will subside somewhat by 36-48 hours as Fiona moves under an upper-level trough into an area of easterly upper-level winds to the north of the trough. By 72 hours, the models forecast the cyclone or its remnants to encounter a second trough, which should produce another round of strong southwesterly shear. The intensity forecast is still based on the premise that the cyclone will not be able to respond to the brief period of more favorable conditions, and it calls for Fiona to gradually decay and become a remnant low in about 48 hours. This should be followed by the system weakening to a trough after 96 hours. The initial motion is 285/15. The guidance remains in good agreement on the forecast track through 72 hours, with Fiona moving west-northwestward to northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the guidance diverges, with the ECMWF turning the remnants of the system northeastward while the GFS and UKMET show a westward turn. The new forecast track is again a compromise between these extremes in showing a slow north-northwestward motion. Overall, the track guidance has shifted westward since the previous advisory, and as a result the forecast track has also shifted a little to the west. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 25.1N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 25.6N 63.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 28.3N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 30.5N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 31.5N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2016-08-22 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 222036 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2016-08-22 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222036 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 61.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 61.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.3N 67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 31.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-22 22:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FIONA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22 the center of FIONA was located near 25.1, -61.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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