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Tropical Depression FIONA Public Advisory Number 24
2016-08-22 22:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 ...FIONA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 61.3W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fiona was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 61.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-22 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222035 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around a mean center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 275/16. The cyclone is on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it should move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours. Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the consensus models. The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate easterly vertical shear. This, combined with warm sea surface temperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative factor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping around the west side of the circulation. On that basis that the dry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening through 72 hours. After that time, arrested development is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to strong westerly vertical shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.7N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 23.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.8N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven/Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression SEVEN (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-22 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22 the center of SEVEN was located near 12.1, -29.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2016-08-22 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 29.0W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 29.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven/Roberts
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-08-22 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 222034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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