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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-26 22:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure in the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin has developed a well-defined center and has sufficient convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. The convective pattern displays a CDO feature near and to the west of the estimated center location due to some east-northeasterly shear, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest SAB Dvorak estimate. The cyclone will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3 days. Later in the forecast period the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out, which should result in some weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 given the recent formation of the center. The depression is currently situated on the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered near 125W. A west-northwestward motion is expected during the first couple of days of the forecast period as the cyclone moves around the edge of the ridge. Late in the period a new ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in a westward motion at days 3 through 5. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however there is some spread, with the GFS slower and farther south by day 5, while the ECMWF is faster and farther north. The NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope and is a little south of the TVCN consensus and is north of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about 170 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-08-26 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 1 18(19) 35(54) 5(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 3(20) 1(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 15(44) 1(45) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 17(38) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-26 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 26 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 13.3, -136.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-08-26 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 262032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 136.5W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 136.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-26 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 136.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 136.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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