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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-22 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 29.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 29.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 31.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.2N 34.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 39.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.7N 44.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression FIONA Graphics
2016-08-22 17:10:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 14:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 15:06:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-08-22 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221434 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 The satellite depiction of Fiona currently features an exposed low-level circulation with a few small areas of convection southeast of the center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, while the various objective estimates range from 25-45 kt. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based mainly on the subjective estimates. The dynamical models forecast that the current westerly vertical shear will subside somewhat by 48 hours as Fiona moves under an upper-level trough into an area of easterly upper-level winds to the north of the trough. By 72 hours, the models forecast the cyclone or its remnants to encounter a second trough, which should produce another round of strong southwesterly shear. Based on the premise that the cyclone will not be able to respond to the brief period of more favorable conditions, the new intensity forecast calls for Fiona to gradually decay and become a remnant low in about 36 hours. This would be followed by the system weakening to a trough after 96 hours. The initial motion is 285/16. The guidance remains in good agreement on the forecast track through 72 hours, with Fiona moving west-northwestward to northwestward toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the guidance diverges, with the ECMWF turning the remnants of the system northeastward while the GFS and UKMET show a westward turn. The new forecast track will compromise between these extremes in showing a slow north-northwestward motion. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the west of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 24.6N 59.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 25.3N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 26.1N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 27.0N 65.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 28.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 30.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-22 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 22 the center of FIONA was located near 24.6, -59.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIONA Public Advisory Number 23
2016-08-22 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 ...FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 59.7W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fiona was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 59.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is forecast later today and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fiona could become a remnant low during this time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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