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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 2
2016-08-28 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 70.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be required for part of this area tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 70.9 West. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Monday and a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-28 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281451 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so, and the convection has increased markedly since 06Z. Given this, and the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass, advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48 hours. As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or two. After that time, the global models show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of the northeastern United States. However, there is some disagreement in when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone dissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until around day 5. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain. The depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that extends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and the initial motion estimate is 280/08. The ridge is forecast to break down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should result in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving during the next 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation. This forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that area later today. Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-28 16:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 14:43:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 14:43:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-28 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281442 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1500 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 70.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 70.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-28 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of EIGHT was located near 31.5, -70.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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