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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-17 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 36.4W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-17 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 36.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 36.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.9N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.0N 39.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.9N 42.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 45.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 53.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression SIX Graphics
2016-08-17 12:27:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 10:27:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 09:03:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-17 10:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170837 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 The depression's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. It consists of a central mass of deep convection and a newly formed band over the northern half of the circulation. The low-level center appears to still be located near the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, likely due to some northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and support maintaining the initial intensity estimate of 30 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to decrease while the cyclone moves over marginally warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. These two factors should favor some intensification during this time frame. However, the global models, and the ECMWF in particular, show the cyclone moving into a much drier environment after 48 hours and encountering strong southwesterly shear in association with a mid- to upper-level trough. Thus weakening is forecast to begin by day 3 despite the cyclone's trek over warmer waters, and there is the possibility that the system could degenerate into a remnant low by day 4 or 5 as depicted in the ECMWF. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one and the multi- model consensus in the short term but lower later in the forecast period and a little below most of the guidance. The depression has been responding to a weakness in the subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w by moving on a northwesterly track, and the initial motion estimate is 305/13. The track guidance remains split into two distinct camps, with GFS-based deterministic models and GFS ensemble members showing a deeper system moving more poleward. The ECMWF and its ensemble solutions are much farther to the south as a result of the model's forecast of a weaker, shallower system moving on a more westerly course. Based on the assumption of a weaker system, the NHC track forecast is adjusted toward the ECMWF solution, and is well south of the previous one and a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.2N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.3N 36.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 15.5N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.8N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 17.8N 41.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 19.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 21.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 23.6N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-17 10:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 170835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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