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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-08-17 10:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 35.2W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 35.2W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 34.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 36.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.8N 39.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 48.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.6N 52.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 35.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-17 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 17 the center of SIX was located near 13.2, -35.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 2
2016-08-17 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 35.2W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 35.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-17 04:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170248 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2016 Convective activity associated with the tropical wave and associated low pressure area over the tropical Atlantic has become more concentrated and better organized this evening, and a recent ASCAT overpass indicates that the circulation has become better defined. Based on these data, this system has been designated a tropical depression, and advisories are being initiated at this time. The initial wind speed of 30 kt is supported by the scatterometer data. Some northeasterly shear is affecting the depression, with the center located near the northeastern edge of the primary convective mass. The shear is forecast to decrease tonight and remain low during the next couple of days which favors strengthening. However, dry mid-level air is lurking just to the north of the depression, and intrusions of this unfavorable airmass could arrest development. The NHC forecast shows gradual strengthening during the next couple of days, but it is on the lower side of the guidance, closest to the LGEM and intensity consensus. Later in the forecast period, increasing southwesterly shear being produced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is likely to weaken the tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310/12 kt. The depression is forecast to move generally northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 48 hours, but there is a large spread between the GFS-based guidance and the ECMWF later in the period. The ECMWF and the majority of its ensemble members depict a much weaker and shallower cyclone that turns west-northwestward in the low-level flow after 48 hours. On the other hand, the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, GFDL, and HWRF take a stronger cyclone more poleward. For now, the NHC track is between these two distinct solutions, and is located just south of the multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 12.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 15.2N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.8N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 18.1N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 20.0N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 22.5N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX Graphics
2016-08-17 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 02:45:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 02:44:34 GMT
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