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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-11 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112041 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 Tropical Depression Six is slowly becoming better organized, with increasing convective banding in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 30 kt respectively, and a recent CIRA AMSU estimate was 32 kt. The initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is 310/13. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. the guidance has come into somewhat better agreement that the northward turn should occur between 49W-55W, as the Canadian model has shifted westward since its previous run. The official forecast is an update of the previous package, and it lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The depression remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear. The large-scale models continue to forecast some increase in southerly shear after 24 hours, although less shear is forecast than seen for the previous advisory. The intensity guidance responds to this, and to increasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, by showing more intensification than previously, especially after 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from 72-120 hours in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 19.0N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 20.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 21.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 30.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-09-11 22:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 112040 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 11 the center of SIX was located near 17.0, -38.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 2
2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 38.2W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112040 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat less organized since this morning. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed on the northern edge of the main convective mass. Low-cloud motions also indicate that depression's circulation remains rather elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with the 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB. The depression should struggle to survive during the next few days. Moderate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the short term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In about a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an environment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft, which should induce a stronger easterly shear. The forecast shear could be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant low status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the depression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the latest multi-model consensus IVCN. Based on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was relocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The depression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the northwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge. As the cyclone moves into a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should bend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases considerably. Global models then show the depression accelerating on a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying circulation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either being absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind shear and losing its identity in 2-3 days. The track forecast is similar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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