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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-09-11 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-09-11 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 112037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.2W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.2W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)
2014-09-11 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING MORE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 16.3, -120.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-11 17:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111534 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 First-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and thus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E at this time. The best guess on the initial motion is 340/11. The depression is forecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as it moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east. A motion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation. The NHC forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCN. While the depression could strengthen a little and become a tropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in 2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system remains a coherent feature through at least day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out to 24 hours and near it beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-09-11 17:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1530 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111533 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 1530 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 AT 1530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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