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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-10 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100846 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 Deep convection has increased in association with the area of low pressure located southwest of Acapulco, and the system is now designated a tropical depression. The convective pattern consists of a large area of tops colder than -80C west of the center and some curved bands forming to the north. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from a pair of ASCAT passes between 0300 and 0500 UTC. The SHIPS model shows moderate easterly to northeasterly shear over the cyclone, consistent with the location of the low-level center on the eastern edge of the convective canopy as shown by the ASCAT data. The shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, which should result in gradual strengthening as the cyclone is situated over very warm SSTs around 30C. By 48 hours, the shear is expected to decrease, allowing the cyclone to take better advantage of the favorable oceanic conditions and intensify more quickly. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS model is the most aggressive, showing the system reaching 90 kt by 72 hours. The HWRF shows quick strengthening in the short term, but then weakens the cyclone due to land interaction. The GFDL model also shows land interaction and a weaker solution. Given that the NHC track keeps the center offshore, the official intensity forecast will be above the intensity consensus but below the SHIPS model, showing the cyclone reaching 70 kt in 72 hours and peaking at 80 kt at days 4 and 5. The initial motion is a north-northwestward drift, as the depression is situated in a region of weak steering south of a mid-level ridge. The western part of the ridge will gradually erode over the next 48 to 72 hours, which should allow the deepening cyclone to begin moving slowly northwestward to north-northwestward. Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northwestward as the ridge strengthens to the east. While overall the guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, there are significant detail differences that will determine how close the system comes to the coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 to 96 hours. The ECMWF shows more interaction with an upper-low retrograding westward across Mexico and pulls the cyclone farther to the east and closer to the coast. On the other hand, the GFS has a track farther offshore showing less influence from the upper-level low and more interaction with the disturbance currently situated about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the depression. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period and is a little slower than and left of the TVCE consensus at days 4 and 5. Given the present weak steering currents and and spread of the model guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual. A tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (EP5/EP152014)
2014-09-10 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 the center of FIFTEEN-E was located near 14.4, -102.5 with movement NNW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-09-10 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100840 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 102.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-09-10 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 6(35) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 25(42) 4(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 21(40) 3(43) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 22(37) 7(44) X(44) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 17(32) 3(35) 1(36) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 1(19) 1(20) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 12(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-09-10 10:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 85NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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