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Tropical Depression DOLLY Graphics
2014-09-03 13:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 11:52:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 09:04:46 GMT
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dolly
Summary for Tropical Depression DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
2014-09-03 13:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 the center of DOLLY was located near 21.7, -98.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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dolly
Tropical Depression DOLLY Public Advisory Number 7A
2014-09-03 13:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031151 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics
2014-09-02 04:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 02:37:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 02:36:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-02 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020236 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north, which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west- northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position. Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the mountains of eastern Mexico. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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