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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-11 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111439 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and organized convective banding near the center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 310/12. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near 45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W. The official forecast lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly motion between 51W-53W. The forecast track keeps the cyclone well away from land for the next 5 days. The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear. The large-scale models forecast some increase in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the end of the forecast period. Despite the shear, the intensity guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening. The official forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.2N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-09-11 16:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 111439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-11 16:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 the center of SIX was located near 16.2, -37.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-09-11 16:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 111439 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 37.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 37.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 37.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-10 11:07:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Sep 2014 08:41:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Sep 2014 09:03:46 GMT
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