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Tropical Depression Andres Graphics
2021-05-11 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 02:33:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 03:22:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-05-11 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low- and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-11 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon May 10 the center of Andres was located near 15.9, -110.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Andres Public Advisory Number 8
2021-05-11 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 110.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Andres is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning and dissipate by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-05-11 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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