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Tropical Depression Iota Public Advisory Number 20
2020-11-18 11:16:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181015 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Iota Advisory Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Corrected Next Advisory section ...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 88.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Iota will move across El Salvador before the system dissipates later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system later today. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Iota Graphics
2020-11-18 09:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 08:41:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 09:24:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-11-18 09:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 180838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Iota Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-18 09:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 309 WTNT41 KNHC 180838 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Iota Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Deep convection is no longer occurring near Iota's center, but curved broken bands of convection still exist within 100 n mi in the northern semicircle. For that reason, Iota is being maintained as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT and ScatSat scatterometer data between 0200-0300 UTC indicated surface winds of 30-32 kt offshore the north-central coast of Honduras, while tropical-storm-force wind gusts were noted in surface observations along the north coast of Honduras. As a result, the intensity was maintained at 35 kt at the 0600 UTC synoptic time. Since then, however, winds have decreased along the coast and offshore, which justify making Iota a 30-kt tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Therefore, the Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been discontinued. The initial motion estimate is now 255/11 kt. Iota or its remnants should continue moving west-southwestward across El Salvador, possibly emerging over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as a post-tropical cyclone before dissipation occurs by late today. At this time, most of the available NHC model guidance does not show regeneration over the eastern Pacific, with only the HWRF and HMON regional models showing brief redevelopment to tropical depression status on Thursday after Iota degenerates to a remnant low later today. However, this is considered a low probability alternate scenario due to unfavorable upper-level winds expected across the eastern North Pacific. Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and mud slides. These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR 12H 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-18 09:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 AM CST Wed Nov 18 the center of Iota was located near 13.7, -88.3 with movement WSW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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