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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-05-11 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-05-10 22:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today, recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time. Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory, making Andres a tropical depression. Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right of track from the previous forecast. An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-05-10 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-10 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEAKENING ANDRES NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon May 10 the center of Andres was located near 16.0, -109.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Andres Public Advisory Number 7
2021-05-10 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...WEAKENING ANDRES NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.8W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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