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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-17 21:42:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172042 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020 ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low within two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-11-17 21:42:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172042 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-11-17 21:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 613 WTPZ21 KNHC 172042 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Theta Graphics
2020-11-15 09:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-11-15 09:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150837 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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