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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 12:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 7:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7 the center of Eta was located near 18.6, -84.2 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 09:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 08:58:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 09:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-11-07 09:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 593 WTNT44 KNHC 070856 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Based on that data, and a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. After adjusting the initial position, the estimated motion is a little slower to the east-northeast than before, 060/9 kt. It should be noted that some of the models show the center re-forming to the northeast later today, which is possible given the depression's convective asymmetry. Regardless of these details, the large scale track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A continued east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as Eta moves in the flow on the east side of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta near or to the west of the Cayman Islands later today and over central Cuba tonight and Sunday. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to cut off over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straits. As a result, Eta will pivot around the low, which should cause a slow down and a turn to the north and then the northwest toward the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday night and Monday. As Eta merges with the upper low, a slower motion to the northwest or north is forecast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF models, and is quite similar to the previous one. Eta is expected to gradually strengthen on its approach to Cuba as it remains over warm waters and in an region of upper-level diffluence. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off in strength, and likely become asymmetric. When Eta interacts and merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida. The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys and portions of south and central Florida beginning late Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings could be required for these areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.3N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-11-07 09:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 070844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 2(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 2(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 1(29) 1(30) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 22(40) 1(41) 1(42) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) X(30) 1(31) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 1(36) X(36) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) 21(48) 2(50) 1(51) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 18(37) 5(42) 1(43) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) 1(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 3(43) 1(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 19(21) 2(23) 2(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 2(34) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) 3(24) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 4(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 5(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 6 41(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) 1(49) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 09:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN FLORIDA... As of 4:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7 the center of Eta was located near 18.3, -84.9 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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