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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-07 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 071432 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 1 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) RIBIERA GRANDE 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PRAIA CVI 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA MARIA CV 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-07 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 21.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 21.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM CVT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-07 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 20.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 21.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 14:23:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071223 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west. and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 13:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 480 WTNT43 KNHC 071156 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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