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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-07 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 070232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 874 WTNT22 KNHC 070231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of Omar was located near 37.4, -57.3 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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