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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-09-12 01:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112332 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida early on Saturday, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 6 to 12 hours. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding and prolong ongoing minor flooding on rivers in the Tampa Bay area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-11 22:59:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 148 WTNT44 KNHC 112059 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 GOES-16 1-minute satellite data show that the system near the Bahamas that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days has quickly organized into a tropical depression. Very deep convection has formed near the center, and the 1-min data now shows enough north and northwest flow to indicate that a well-defined center is present. The initial wind speed is 30 kt in agreement with recent ship data. It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression. An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even more so than usual in this case. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding in the Tampa Bay area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 25.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-11 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:57:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:57:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-11 22:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.4, -79.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-11 22:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 112056 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 14 3(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FT MYERS FL 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) 1(23) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 17(41) 3(44) X(44) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 13(47) 3(50) X(50) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 22(41) 4(45) 1(46) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26) 2(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 4(27) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 6(26) 3(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 28(42) 5(47) 3(50) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) 5(28) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) 7(28) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 7(26) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 6(26) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 5(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 8(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 5(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 6(43) 4(47) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 2(16) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 10(33) 6(39) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 4(14) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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