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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-07 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070837 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C. However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance. Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation, strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h, increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification, and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Seventeen was located near 17.3, -42.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-07 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 42.1W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 42.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-07 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 070836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-07 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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