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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-12 04:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 6 11(17) 1(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 4 14(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 2 25(27) 5(32) 1(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) VENICE FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 5(21) 1(22) 1(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 12(41) 2(43) 1(44) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 19(39) 10(49) 1(50) 1(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 14(42) 3(45) 1(46) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 2(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 5(24) 2(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) 3(30) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 21(46) 5(51) 2(53) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) 1(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) 4(29) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 6(30) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 7(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 7(28) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 8(26) 4(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 8(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 5(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 26(42) 6(48) 2(50) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 2(17) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 9(37) 5(42) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 3(14) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-12 04:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120243 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 79.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 79.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida during the next several hours, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a tropical storm Saturday night or Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in south Florida overnight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected across the western Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-12 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF * OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEHWERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 01:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 23:33:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 21:40:16 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 01:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.5, -79.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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