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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160842 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 119.0W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 119.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm today, however weakening is expected thereafter, and the system is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160842 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-16 10:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.4, -133.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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