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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161446 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or later than indicated. The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 16:46:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.7, -134.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 134.0W ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 134.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the northwest then west at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a remnant low during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 4 12(16) 7(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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