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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. The deep convection that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity is held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several more days. The models show little change in strength, and the NHC prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast period. Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours. As the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 15N 135W 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.1, -133.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 796 WTPZ35 KNHC 160231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TEN-E BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 133.8W ABOUT 1705 MI...2745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 133.8 West. The depression has been stationary during the past several hours. A very slow northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 797 WTPZ25 KNHC 160231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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