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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-15 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-15 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:33:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:33:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-15 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since last night. The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical guidance. In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast which remain near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-15 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS STILL DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.2, -133.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-15 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 978 WTPZ35 KNHC 151431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS STILL DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 133.7W ABOUT 1695 MI...2730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 133.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The system is forecast to meander generally westward this morning and then northwestward through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Minor fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next two or three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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