Home › depression
 

Keywords :   


Tag: depression

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-14 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 120 WTPZ45 KNHC 140835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The circulation of the depression was devoid of deep convection for several hours tonight and just recently new convection has begun to develop near the center. Although the Dvorak data T-numbers continue to decrease, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed there were several wind vectors supporting keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The ASCAT ambiguities from the overpass suggest that the low may be starting to become less well-defined, and if deep convection cannot persist for an appreciable amount of time, the system may open into a trough embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The current environment consisting of moderate northeasterly shear, modest moisture, and some subsidence is not expected to change all that much over the next few days. None of the intensity guidance except for the SHIPS makes the system a tropical storm. However, the simulated satellite imagery from various models do suggest that intermittent convection should continue to develop near the center in the near-term, which could provide enough vortex spin-up to keep the system a depression for a little while. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, but it should be reiterated that the system could dissipate or degenerate to a convection-free remnant low at any time. The depression is now moving just south of west at 4 kt and is being steered by a low-level ridge to its northwest. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for the next couple of days. Over the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and with the loss of steering flow, the depression may begin to drift generally northwestward. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and is also near the TVCE/TVCX consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.1N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.7N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 13.7N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.1N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-08-14 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 2(17) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-08-14 10:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 131.5W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 131.5W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 133.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 133.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 131.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics

2020-08-14 04:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:02 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-08-14 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 274 WTPZ45 KNHC 140234 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection associated with the depression has waned and become separated from the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear. This has resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3 days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during that time. It still remains possible, however, that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross the tropical storm threshold. After 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions are expected to prevent strengthening. The new forecast calls for the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent convection. The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account for this model trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Sites : [398] [399] [400] [401] [402] [403] [404] [405] [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] next »