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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 7A
2019-09-30 07:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300535 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 105.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or over the Islas Marias archipelago in a few hours. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should soon begin in the Islas Marias, and will spread northward over the remainder of the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Narda Graphics
2019-09-30 04:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:36:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:36:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Narda Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-30 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 My best estimate of Narda's position based on conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations, is inland near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. There may be other small swirls embedded within a surface trough that lies from the Islas Marias archipelago southeastward to Puerto Vallarta, Narda, and Manzanillo. However, the mid-level circulation center that we have been tracking, which is near ground level in this mountainous region, is the feature that has had the most continuity. A curved band of intense deep convection consisting of cloud tops of -85C to -90C, with isolated overshooting tops to -95C, wraps about half around the center and generally corresponds to 35-kt winds. Due to land interaction, however, the initial intensity is being held just below tropical storm strength or 30 kt. The initial motion is 315/18 kt. A large ridge anchored to the east of Narda is expected to steer the the cyclone northwestward for the next 3 days. This will result in Narda emerging back over the Pacific Ocean in about 6 hours, then passing near or over the Islas Marias islands Monday morning, followed by a track near or just offshore the northwestern coast of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. A second landfall is expected along the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, followed by dissipation Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies just a tad to the left of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, which move the center inland in about 24 hours. The intensity forecast remains highly uncertain, and leans toward a consensus of the wind fields in the global models, which show Narda regaining tropical storm status in 6-12 hours as a band of 35-kt winds forms between the center and the mountainous coastline, likely due to funneling/orographic effects. The upper-level environment is forecast to be conducive for additional strengthening when Narda moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California after 12-18 hours, but land interaction is expected to temper any significant strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is flat-lined at 35-kt, although some fluctuations in the intensity is likely. Due to Narda being forecast to regain tropical storm status, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for portions of northwestern Mexico. The primary threat from Narda will continue to be very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-30 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 20.6, -105.2 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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