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Remnants of Narda Graphics
2019-10-01 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 14:48:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:31:23 GMT
Remnants of Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-10-01 16:47:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011447 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF NARDA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Remnants of Narda Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-10-01 16:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Narda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Surface observations and first-light visible satellite imagery show that the surface circulation of Narda has dissipated along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The system is also producing negligible deep convection. Therefore, this is the last advisory. Moisture associated with Narda will continue to lift northward and northeastward across portions of northern Mexico and the U.S. Southern plains through Wednesday. This moisture will contribute to heavy rain, with the threat of flash flooding. For more information about the threat of heavy rains and flooding in the U.S., please see products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.3N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NARDA 12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Remnants of Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 16:47:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 27.3, -110.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of Narda Public Advisory Number 13
2019-10-01 16:47:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Narda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 110.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Narda were located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.3 West. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Southern Plains for the next day or two, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds should continue to diminish today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce additional rainfall of up to 2 inches across portions of Chihuahua and Sonora. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of coastal Mexico along the Gulf of California. Although the high surf should decrease during the day, these swells could still cause life-threatening rip current conditions today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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