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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-15 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 20.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 20.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 20.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2019-10-15 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 02:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 02:41:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Fifteen was located near 14.5, -20.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 20.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be required for a portion of the islands on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 20.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and then move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 150240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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