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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-09-24 07:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 04:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:53:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:53:04 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-09-24 04:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 240251 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT CROIX 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-24 04:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240251 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb. Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time, a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry. However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen, and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show little change in intensity during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-24 04:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 16.1, -65.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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