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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-14 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 142039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) PRAIA CVI 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 27(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-14 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 19.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-10-01 14:43:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 381 WTPZ31 KNHC 011243 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Corrected classification of Narda in discussion and outlook section ...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda's remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning. These winds should diminish through the day. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 14:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 6:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 27.1, -110.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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narda
Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-10-01 13:47:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... As of 6:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 the center of Narda was located near 27.1, -110.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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