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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-23 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The deep convection that formed earlier today to the west of the center of Mario is gradually decreasing in both intensity and coverage, and the system is likely on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds. Mario is headed for cool waters, and it should be crossing the 26 C isotherm on early Monday. These cool waters and a dry and stable air mass should cause the deep convection to dissipate, and Mario will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours. All of the models show the remnant low opening up into a trough over the central Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is based largely on the GFS and ECMWF guidance, and now shows dissipation by 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to enter a region of strong westerly wind shear. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move north-northwestward at 9 kt. Mario, or its remnants, are expected to move slower to the north-northwest and then the north during the next day or so within the low-level flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-23 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 23.4, -112.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 23
2019-09-23 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 112.9W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next day or two. The remnants of Mario are expected to move over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low on Monday. The low is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-09-23 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Mario Graphics
2019-09-22 23:11:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:11:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:45:36 GMT
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