je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-18 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 385 WTNT45 KNHC 180252 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory. The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-18 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Ten was located near 13.7, -46.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180251 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-18 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 180251 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 4(30) X(30) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180251 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [568] [569] [570] [571] [572] [573] [574] [575] [576] [577] [578] [579] [580] [581] [582] [583] [584] [585] [586] [587] next »