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Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 95.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.5N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.8N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.7N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 95.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IMELDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Imelda Graphics
2019-09-18 01:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:39:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-18 01:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172338 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...IMELDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 95.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.4 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north- northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to continue to weaken as it moves farther inland. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2019-09-17 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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