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Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-22 16:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221444 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-22 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220856 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Lorena Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Very little convection remains with Lorena, with only a small burst near the center. Strong southwesterly shear continues to weaken Lorena, and ASCAT data indicate the maximum winds are down to 30 kt. All watches and warnings have been discontinued on this advisory. Lorena is forecast to move northward across northwestern Mexico later this morning and rapidly dissipate within 24 hours over the high terrain. There are no significant changes to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora today. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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Tropical Depression Lorena Graphics
2019-09-22 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:55:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:52:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-22 10:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.3, -111.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lorena Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-22 10:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220855 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for western mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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