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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 50.6W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 50.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin by midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-29 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:34:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:34:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36 hours, however. The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic. Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the depression, causing it to turn back to the north and north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than previously thought, and most of the models have shifted significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore, additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.7N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-29 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 19.7, -50.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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