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Tropical Depression Nora Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-08-30 07:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300532 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 108.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Nora dissipates inland later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Nora has become very disorganized, and is forecast to dissipate inland later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-30 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 02:38:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 03:29:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-30 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300237 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center. Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period, then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus. The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to the track may be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-30 04:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 254 FONT15 KNHC 300237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 20.1, -50.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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