je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-17 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:36:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:36:52 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
joyce
Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-17 16:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 633 WTNT45 KNHC 171435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining into the circulation. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a little faster than the previous advisory. The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to the previous official forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 34.0N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-17 16:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 674 FONT15 KNHC 171434 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-17 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 17 the center of Joyce was located near 34.0, -28.4 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
joyce
Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-17 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 510 WTNT35 KNHC 171433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 28.4W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 28.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this forward speed is expected to continue while turning toward the southeast today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [699] [700] [701] [702] [703] [704] [705] [706] [707] [708] [709] [710] [711] [712] [713] [714] [715] [716] [717] [718] next »