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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-19 22:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 699 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops, and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30 kt based on this information. The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory. The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. This will not afford much time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of the Sierra-Madre Occidental. The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2018-09-19 22:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 20:50:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 21:21:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
2018-09-19 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 27.0, -111.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-19 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 556 WTPZ34 KNHC 192047 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 111.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 111.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this forecast track, the depression is expected to move inland over northwestern Mexico late this evening with dissipation on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system moves inland over northwestern Mexico, however steady weakening is forecast thereafter with dissipation expected on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California and western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-19 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 549 FOPZ14 KNHC 192047 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE
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