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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-09-17 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 204 WTNT25 KNHC 171433 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 28.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 28.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 28.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 28.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 72
2018-09-17 11:02:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-17 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 08:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 08:35:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-17 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 261 WTNT45 KNHC 170834 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HWRF model guidance. The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and not too different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-17 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 160 FONT15 KNHC 170834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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