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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-19 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 539 WTPZ34 KNHC 191453 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move inland over northwestern Mexico this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is forecast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-19 16:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 365 WTPZ24 KNHC 191452 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-18 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 20:49:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 21:21:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-18 22:29:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 812 WTNT45 KNHC 182029 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no longer having organized deep convection. With the decrease in overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt. An environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday. This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or less). The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south- southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt). The depression is forecast to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF, is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 30.9N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-18 22:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 30.9, -27.8 with movement SSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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