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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-17 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 919 WTNT45 KNHC 170240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very strong westerly vertical wind shear. The system still displays cold cloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least 100 nm from the center. The shear is being induced primarily by 50-kt 200 mb winds. Usually such strong vertical shear would completely decapitate a tropical cyclone. However, systems in higher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear vector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental effects of the shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce will soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters, and dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening, nearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models. Joyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip. The system has not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is expected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores high. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the southeast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the southwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker eastward initial motion than previously observed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 34.0N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.0, -30.3 with movement E at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 456 WTNT35 KNHC 170239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 30.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 30.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h). The system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the southeast on Monday, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low within the next two days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 444 FONT15 KNHC 170239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-17 04:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 193 WTNT25 KNHC 170239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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