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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-11 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 574 WTPZ33 KNHC 112031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 ...PAUL BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 125.2W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Paul is expected to weaken into a remnant low on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-11 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 275 FOPZ13 KNHC 112031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Paul Graphics
2018-09-11 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 14:45:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 14:45:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-11 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 051 WTPZ43 KNHC 111443 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 The center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The southward model trend from the previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-11 16:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 the center of Paul was located near 22.3, -124.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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