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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-13 16:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 131441 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The overall organization of the depression has changed little this morning. Visible satellite imagery and NOAA buoy data indicate that center is located near the northwestern edge of the area of convective banding. In fact, nearly all of the convective banding is located over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving north-northwestward or 335/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The depression is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward around the western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough that will be approaching the northeastern United States. As the southwesterly flow increases over the western Atlantic ahead of the trough by 72 hours, the cyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward. The track guidance is once again in excellent agreement, and only a slight westward adjustment from the previous forecast was required. The depression is currently over warm water and within a low shear environment, but the mid-level atmosphere is relatively dry. These conditions should allow some modest strengthening during the next day or so. Vertical shear is forecast to increase by late Monday, and increase further in 2 to 3 days, which should put an end to any additional intensification. The system is forecast to become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, but if it does not strengthen it could be absorbed by an approaching trough off the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S. in a few days. The latter portion of the forecast continues to be based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 27.4N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 29.1N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 32.5N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 34.6N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 39.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 42.5N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1200Z 47.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-08-13 16:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 131441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082017)
2017-08-13 16:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 the center of Eight was located near 27.4, -71.5 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2017-08-13 16:41:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 131441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 71.5W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The minimum central pressure estimated from reports from a NOAA buoy is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-08-13 16:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 131440 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.5W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.5W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.1N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.5N 71.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.6N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 47.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 71.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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