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Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics
2017-08-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 20:42:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 21:23:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-08-23 22:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 High-resolution visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern of Harvey is a little better organized than it was this morning, but the system lacks distinct banding features. Surface synoptic observations, ASCAT data, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB indicated that the cyclone has not strengthened, so the current intensity is held at 30 kt. The global models predict that an upper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will essentially dissipate in a day or so. Therefore, Harvey is expected to remain in a relatively low-shear environment up to the Texas coast. Moreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location near the projected path of Harvey. This would also be conducive to strengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a hurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and 72 hours. Based on the scatterometer data and geostationary satellite fixes the center hasn't moved much this afternoon, although recent imagery suggests a northwestward drift at about 320/2 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48 hours. Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains. As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and move very slowly just inland of the coast. Some of the track guidance models, such as the HWRF, have shifted southwestward in comparison to their previous run. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one through 48 hours and is a little slower and to the west after that time. This is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It should be noted that synoptic surveillance data are currently being collected by the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft and these data will be assimilated into, and hopefully improve the forecasts by, the global models. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday. 2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-08-23 22:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 232036 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 6(15) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 6(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 7(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 3(23) 7(30) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 4(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 7(21) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 4(18) 7(25) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 4(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 6(24) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 4(21) 7(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 4(31) 6(37) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) 5(35) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) 4(32) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 8(31) 3(34) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 17(35) 3(38) 6(44) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 22(33) 11(44) 2(46) 6(52) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 4(25) 7(32) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 18(42) 3(45) 4(49) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 19(47) 5(52) 3(55) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) 2(20) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 21(50) 5(55) 2(57) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 1(20) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 20(47) 4(51) 3(54) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 32(53) 10(63) 2(65) 2(67) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) 2(28) 2(30) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 10(33) 4(37) 4(41) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 24(35) 9(44) 4(48) 4(52) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 24(41) 8(49) 3(52) 4(56) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 1(17) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 39(43) 13(56) 4(60) 1(61) 3(64) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 2(15) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-23 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Harvey was located near 21.6, -92.6 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 13
2017-08-23 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 92.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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