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Tropical Depression Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-23 17:15:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 15:15:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-23 17:00:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 15:00:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-08-23 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that Harvey has regenerated in the Bay of Campeche, with a closed circulation noted and a central pressure of about 1006 mb. The initial wind speed is 30 kt based on SFMR data from the aircraft. Harvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud pattern and a large radius of maximum wind. The environment, however, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate shear. The biggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor structure. Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase in wind speed during the first day, with a more significant intensification after that time. Although not explicitly forecast below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying cyclone approaching the Texas coast. Since the center has just recently formed, the initial motion is difficult to estimate, but the long-term motion is 310/8. Harvey is expected to move more slowly toward the northwest or north- northwest as it enters a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge during the next day or so. The ridge slightly strengthens by late Thursday, which should cause a faster northwestward motion by then. Around the time of landfall, however, Harvey should enter an area of weaker steering currents near the upper Texas coast as high pressure rebuilds over the southwestern United States. The storm should slow down markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable uncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead of the next mid-latitude trough. For now the NHC forecast will just drift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on the slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights and special soundings over the southern United States will help clarify the long range forecast. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday. 2. Several days of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office (www.weather.gov) and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more information on the flooding hazard. 3. The National Weather Service has issued a Storm Surge Watch from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will also be available on the NHC website by 1200 PM CDT. Remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch area. 5. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-08-23 16:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 231449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 7(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 7(17) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 8(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 9(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 9(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 10(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 4(22) 4(26) 7(33) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 8(20) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 9(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 5(20) 9(29) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 7(23) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 5(23) 6(29) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 7(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 16(32) 4(36) 5(41) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 16(28) 5(33) 6(39) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 9(28) 3(31) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 7(27) 3(30) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 19(41) 3(44) 5(49) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 31(41) 11(52) 1(53) 3(56) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 2(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 4(29) 6(35) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 21(50) 2(52) 3(55) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 20(54) 3(57) 2(59) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) 2(23) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 21(56) 2(58) 3(61) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 2(22) 1(23) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 20(50) 3(53) 2(55) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) 1(18) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 44(62) 9(71) 1(72) 2(74) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) 1(31) 1(32) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 8(31) 3(34) 1(35) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 8(42) 3(45) 2(47) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 7(44) 2(46) 2(48) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 13(51) 2(53) 1(54) 2(56) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-23 16:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Harvey was located near 21.5, -92.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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