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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 12
2017-08-23 16:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system for possible watches this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a track toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-08-23 16:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT MANSFIELD AND FROM NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILILTY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 92.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics
2017-08-19 22:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-08-19 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day, at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation still exists. The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan. However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the next 72 h. The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not warranted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-08-19 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 192033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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